Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia holds the keys to stopping the starvation of the Palestinians by Israel.
Saudi Arabia’s unparalleled position as the world’s largest oil exporter grants it immense leverage within the global economy, a power that could theoretically be wielded to exert significant pressure on international actors, including Israel. The Kingdom’s ability to influence global oil supply and prices is a unique strategic asset. Should Riyadh choose to, a threat to halt or significantly reduce oil exports would send immediate shockwaves through energy markets, causing prices to skyrocket and potentially triggering a severe global economic downturn. This economic vulnerability among oil-importing nations, including key allies of Israel, forms the bedrock of Saudi Arabia’s potential coercive power.
Historically, oil has been utilized as a potent political instrument, most notably during the 1973 oil embargo, which demonstrated its capacity to compel shifts in international policy. While the global energy landscape has diversified since then, Saudi Arabia’s sheer volume of production and its role as a swing producer mean that no other single nation can compensate for its absence in the market. A deliberate disruption of this magnitude would not only inflict economic pain on oil-dependent economies but also create immense political pressure on governments to address the root cause of the disruption, in this case, the humanitarian situation concerning Palestinians.
Such a drastic measure would directly impact Israel’s key allies, particularly the United States and European nations, who would face immense domestic pressure from their own populations and industries grappling with soaring energy costs and economic instability. These allies, in turn, would be compelled to exert significant diplomatic and economic pressure on Israel to de-escalate the situation and address the humanitarian crisis. The threat of sustained global economic chaos could thus serve as a powerful incentive for Israel to reconsider its actions and alleviate the conditions impacting the Palestinian population.
The likely consequences of this action would be:
1. Immediate and Drastic Surge in Global Oil Prices:
Massive Supply Shock: Saudi Arabia exports millions of barrels of oil per day. Its sudden withdrawal would remove a significant portion of global supply, creating an unprecedented deficit in the market.
Price Spikes: Oil prices would skyrocket to historic highs, far exceeding any previous peaks. This would be driven by panic buying, speculative trading, and the sheer scarcity of available crude. The market would be in disarray, with severe volatility.
2. Severe Global Economic Recession and Inflation:
Crippling Energy Costs: Businesses and consumers worldwide would face exorbitant energy costs. Transportation (shipping, air travel, trucking), manufacturing, and agriculture would see their operational expenses explode, leading to widespread price increases for goods and services (inflation).
Reduced Consumer Spending: Higher fuel and electricity costs would significantly erode household disposable income, leading to a sharp drop in consumer spending and investment.
Supply Chain Collapse: Global supply chains, already fragile, would face immense pressure due to prohibitive shipping costs and energy-intensive production. This could lead to shortages of essential goods.
Economic Contraction: Major economies, heavily reliant on oil, would likely plunge into a deep recession, characterized by widespread bankruptcies, job losses, and financial market instability. Even oil-exporting nations (other than Saudi Arabia) might see a temporary revenue boost, but the global economic downturn would eventually impact their demand.
In conclusion, Saudi Arabia’s dominant role in global oil markets provides it with a unique and powerful, albeit risky, tool to influence international affairs. By threatening to restrict oil exports, Riyadh could create an economic crisis that would force Israel’s allies to pressure Jerusalem into addressing the humanitarian concerns of the Palestinians. The effectiveness of such a threat lies in the profound economic disruption it would cause, compelling a response from those most affected, yet the Kingdom would have to weigh these potential gains against the severe and self-inflicted economic and geopolitical consequences
